来源：华尔街见闻

　　作者：袁伟

　　一场至关重要的美债标售将有助于衡量投资者们是否确信，2023年的美债抛售浪潮已经彻底宣告结束。

　　美国国债市场近来开始的“超级大反弹”，将在今晚面临重大考验：美国财政部将进行规模160亿美元的20年期国债标售。一场至关重要的美债标售将有助于衡量投资者们是否确信，2023年的美债抛售浪潮已经彻底宣告结束。

　　在通胀放缓和经济增长降温迹象的刺激下，海外交易员和投资者最近一头扎进了美国国债市场，他们相信美联储已经完成了加息，并将在明年年中转向降息。与此同时，此前美国财政部宣布的标售规模增幅小于许多债券交易商的预期，尤其是长期债券的标售，这缓解了部分市场供应担忧。

　　在这股强大的购买力量推动下，美债结束了六个月的连跌，并推动10年期美债市场在3月份上涨了 2.6%。这是自3月份以来的最大涨幅，当时人们担心银行业危机会拖垮经济。

　　但本月狂热的美债价格涨势已将$美国10年期国债收益率（US10Y.BD）$推至1月以来最低水平，从而使本周美国财政部20年期国债标售的需求，成为投资者判断近期趋势是否有逆转风险的重要指标。

　　在过去的一年里，由于出人意料的强劲经济和顽固的通货膨胀，债券市场交易商的信心受到了打击。不断膨胀的联邦赤字也是一个原因，它考验着市场吸收所有新债的能力。

　　在过往三年的大部分时间里，由于需求远不如10年期和30年期国债，美国财政部的20年期国债标售一直是一个市场负担。同时，20年期国债在此期间从未在假期缩短的美国感恩节周内标售过。今晚标售能否获得成功，格外受到人们的关注。

　　对于市场能否接得住大量美债标售的担忧，在本月早些时候的30年期债券标售中表现得很明显：当时财政部不得不提供异常高的收益率溢价来出售债券，导致市场短暂暴跌。

　　据媒体援引法国巴黎银行美国利率策略主管William Marshall称，“此次重要的美债标售可谓一场对于投资者们的‘理智检查’，即数据的演变是否已经以一种有意义的方式转向更加稳定、更具建设性的方式，来吸收久期供应。”

　　Marshall指出：

“尽管20年期国债长期以来受到需求疲软的影响，收益率一直高于30年期国债，但自从美国财政部早前缩小了20年期国债相对于10年期和30年期国债的标售规模后，20年期国债在标售中的表现一直较好。周二的标售规模为160亿美元，而本月早些时候30年期国债的标售规模为240亿美元。”

　　编辑/tolk

　　Source： Wall Street News

　　Author： Yuan Wei

　　A critical sale of US bonds will help measure whether investors are convinced that the wave of US debt sell-offs in 2023 has come to an end．

　　The “huge rebound” that has recently begun in the US Treasury bond market will face a major test tonight： the US Treasury will bid for a 20-year treasury bond with a scale of 16 billion US dollars． A critical sale of US bonds will help measure whether investors are convinced that the wave of US debt sell-offs in 2023 has come to an end．

　　Spurred by slowing inflation and signs of cooling economic growth， overseas traders and investors have recently plunged headlong into the US Treasury bond market． They believe the Fed has raised interest rates and will switch to cutting interest rates by the middle of next year． At the same time， the increase in bid scale previously announced by the US Treasury Department was less than expected by many bond traders， especially long-term bond bids， which allayed some market supply concerns．

　　Driven by this strong purchasing power， US debt ended a six-month decline and pushed the 10-year US bond market to rise 2.6% in November． This was the biggest increase since March， when people feared the banking crisis would drag down the economy．

　　However， this month‘s frenzied rise in US debt prices is about to begin$U.S． 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield（US10Y.BD）$It was pushed to the lowest level since September， making demand for the US Treasury’s 20-year treasury bond bidding this week an important indicator for investors to determine whether there is a risk of a reversal in recent trends．

　　Over the past year， the confidence of bond market traders has been hit by an unexpectedly strong economy and stubborn inflation． The growing federal deficit is another reason， testing the market‘s ability to absorb all new debt．

　　For most of the past three years， the US Treasury‘s bid on 20-year Treasury bonds has been a market burden since demand for 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds was far worse than that of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds． At the same time， 20-year Treasury bonds were never sold during the US Thanksgiving week when the holiday was shortened during this period． Whether tonight’s bidding will be a success has attracted particular attention．

　　Concerns about whether the market will be able to accept the sale of large amounts of US bonds were evident in the 30-year bond auction earlier this month： at the time， the Treasury had to offer an unusually high yield premium to sell bonds， causing the market to plummet for a short time．

　　According to media quoting William Marshall， head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas， “This important US bond bid can be described as a ‘intellectual check’ for investors， that is， whether the evolution of data has moved in a meaningful way to a more stable and more constructive approach to absorb long-term supply．”

　　Marshall stated：

“Although 20-year treasury bonds have been affected by weak demand for a long time， and the yield has always been higher than that of 30-year treasury bonds， since the US Treasury earlier reduced the bidding scale of 20-year treasury bonds compared to 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds， the performance of 20-year treasury bonds in bidding sales has always been good． The bid on Tuesday was $16 billion， while the bid for 30-year treasury bonds was $24 billion earlier this month．”

　　editor/tolk